The Census Bureau’s quarterly report on homeowner vacancy rates was released yesterday;  the first quarter 2008 homeowner vacancy rate was reported at 2.9% (+/- 0.1).  Despite the splash made by the media, the rate was not critically different from the fourth quarter 2007 rate (2.8%) or the first quarter 2007 rate (2.8%). 

Various media pundits noted yesterday’s 2.9% rate was a record, and much higher (which no doubt it is) that the typical range from 1995 to 2005, which was 1.5% to 2%. 

Some were noted as saying (for example Global Insight economist Patrick Newport) that “It’s the worst piece of housing news that we’ve heard in the past couple of months”.  We certainly agree that this is yet another piece of evidence that unsold single family inventory isn’t improving at this point in time, and the worst nationally is probably yet to come as a large number of adjustable rate mortgages are due to reset during this quarter. 

This data is another bit of evidence in agreement with our premise that it’s critically important to track single family home data for your markets of choice;  we explain our stance and process in detail in the May issue of the Multifamily Emerging Market Report (click here for subscription information). 

The home rental vacancy rate rose to 10.1% in the first quarter 2008 (there are roughly 4.1 million homes for rent in the country at this point in time);  shadow market risk is becoming very real in some communities.  Don’t be caught by surprise. 

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