We’ve been hinting at some changes we’ve been working on here at Redfish the past few weeks.  It’s time to share a little of what we’ve been working on. 

When we opened out database to the public early last spring, we had been tracking 286 markets for some time before.  In the years that we operated the database for our own use, we tracked primary, secondary, and tertiary markets with what we considered to be “potential”, and some markets that were in their “down phase” of the cycle. 

Over the years we received a lot of questions about tracking tertiary markets from our investing colleagues; we tracked tertiary markets with a compelling “special feature” – a college campus, a nearby military base, or a unique employer nearby.   

In the year plus since the credit train has come off the tracks, it has become for the most part impossible to fund a project in a tertiary market.  Reflective of the pendulum swing to the ultraconservative side of the lending spectrum, lenders are demanding very solid, performing projects in very solid, performing markets, markets with a proven track record.  In these economic times secondary markets are a challenge to procure funding in; tertiary markets are next to impossible to procure funding in. 

During this same time frame, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has discontinued detailed market reporting for over 70 markets – mostly tertiary markets - either discontinuing supersector reporting altogether, or reporting just two or three of the eleven supersectors.  This compromises our ability to accurately report job growth data in these markets; some markets have a reliable, accurate state level or local level source for the information – most don’t. 

Bottom line – we feel it’s critical to report the most accurate and complete market data we can – plain and simple.   In response to the two issues noted above, we’re making the following changes in the markets we track daily –

  • 74 markets will be moved to a non-reporting / non-ranking status.  These are overwhelmingly smaller / tertiary markets without a “special feature” as discussed above.  Most of these markets have been dropped by the BLS reporting system as noted above.  These markets are identified in a light gray font on our Working City List page.
  • These markets will be tracked by the team, and researched during the third quarter in even more detail to locate alternative sources of the necessary information. 
  • 21 markets will require special additional research, though we feel that we will be able to locate alternation information sources for these markets by 1 September 2008.  These markets are identified in a blue font on our Working City List page. 
  • We’re of course going to follow the remainder of the markets (191) of them as we always have, updating their critical information every four months or more often as required by market conditions. 
  • We have another 56 markets suggested by friends, mentors, subscribers, and colleagues that we’re analyzing to potentially be included in our data and ranking system.  We’ll announce new markets as we bring them on. 

We’ve just finished another very intense run of updating almost twice our usual number of markets this past four weeks (nearly 100), and are excited to be sharing in the blog and the upcoming revised newsletter (The Emerging Market Report) the interesting data that we continue to uncover. 

Hang on to your hats – things are getting more and more interesting……

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