The media is off and running with today’s BLS release of the national unemployment rate; unemployment has climbed to 5.7% in July.  BLS data shows that employers trimmed 51,000 nonfarm jobs in July; the biggest losers were construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries including retail.  Job growth was noted in the education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government supersectors. 

The very bright minds over at Calculated Risk have again provided an insightful graph today laying out a timeline of the unemployment rate and year-over-year change in employment overlaying a timeline that details when recessions have occurred historically. 

In our humble opinion timelines such as this one are invaluable, and several points jump to mind right off the bat.  First of all, most of the current decade has passed with the nation enjoying historically low unemployment.  Secondly, a bump to 5.7% unemployment, when viewed in context of unemployment rates over time, is clearly neither earth nor economy shattering. 

Those looking for support to call a recession could certainly argue that today’s data, when viewed in the context of prior recessions over time, certainly looks, walks, and quacks like prior recessions. 

Finally, it continues to amaze us how unemployment and employment growth vary dramatically market to market.  There are some markets out there with outrageous unemployment (several Arizona and California communities are pushing 10% - or worse).  Variability in employment growth is just as spectacular – the leader in our rankings this month for total nonfarm employment growth (6 month rolling average) is KRP, WA with 5.3% growth; the worst is Cape Coral, FL with -5.4%.  The take home for the emerging market real estate investor – it’s not all doom and gloom in the employment world out there – you have to do some digging to finds those markets where job growth is cranking along.

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