Prieur du Plessis has posted commentary today about Byron Wien’s list of “surprises” for 2009.  Here’s how PdP introduced the list today, and here’s a link to the full post…

Dead on target at the beginning of the new year, 75-year-old Byron Wien again published his annual list of surprises to expect in 2009. Wien, chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital and one of Wall Street’s best known veterans, has been publishing his list of economic, market and political surprises since 1986.

Reviewing Wien’s 2008 list, he got about half of his predictions right.

He foresaw the US entering a recession “as housing starts stay soft and banks are reluctant to lend to anyone where a whiff of risk is apparent”, and the S&P 500 Index declining by 10%. He also correctly predicted the ECB commencing an accommodative monetary policy, Barack Obama’s US election victory and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev becoming more assertive in world affairs.

However, Wien was quite wrong with his prediction of the US dollar strengthening during the first half of 2008 and weakening in the second half. Also, he expected the price of oil to go down to $80 a barrel early in the year and rising to $115 in the second half.

Wien believes his ten surprises have at least a 50% chance of occurring at some point during the year. Although this is not a very high probability, his predictions nevertheless make for stimulating reading.

John Mauldin writing at Outside the Box has posted a couple of opposing views on the nature of our economic challenges and what should be the government’s response.  He’s featured the writing of two very bright gentlemen; the first titled All In, written by Paul McCulley, the managing director of Pimco.  McCulley argues (in a most entertaining way) that a federal response is indeed in order to protect the economy and “save capitalism from itself (Mauldin)”. 

Late yesterday Mauldin posted Setting the Bull Trap written by Bennet Sedacca, an opposing view, again very well written, well documented, and posting some most intriguing questions. 

These contrasting viewpoints are well worth your time today.

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